Three NFL Week 13 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 13 Upset Picks To Consider (2022)

These NFL Week 13 upset picks stand out as moneyline value plays based on our algorithmic prediction models, data angles, and/or recent news.

November 30, 2022 – by Jason Lisk

Deshaun Watson returns at Houston (David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire)

Everyone loves an underdog, and hitting that upset pick that others did not see coming.

In this article, we pick three NFL Week 13 underdogs to win outright. We also keep track of our overall season performance, using the moneyline odds for each pick at publication time.

Last season, upset picks we highlighted in this column went 22-25-1 straight up, good for +17.0 units of profit if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(To see our favorite NFL betting picks each week, including point spread, over/under, props, and other picks, check out our Staff Betting Picks.)

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Upset Picks Results to Date

Last Week: 2-1 for +1.9 units2022 Season: 14-22 for +3.2 units

We got back to some winning ways last week, as two of three games went our way late:

Pittsburgh (+120) jumped out to a lead at Indianapolis and held on for a 24-17 win.Jacksonville (+165) scored a late TD to take the lead, and survived 28-27 when Justin Tucker’s 67-yard attempt was short.Tennessee (+110) was the one pick that didn’t work out, losing to Cincinnati 20-16 in a tough battle.

Week 13 NFL Upset Picks

New York Jets (at Minnesota Vikings)

Moneyline: +132Point Spread: +3.0

This is not a model pick, but we’re going with it for another reason: Mike White at QB instead of Zach Wilson for the Jets.

The Jets have a really good defensive line. Rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner has also been a revelation, and he could help limit star Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson. Primarily, though, the Jets were functionally limited on offense with Wilson at QB.

White has shown far more of an ability to push the ball to the wide receivers on this roster. He makes the Jets a dangerous underdog here in a game against the not-as-dominant-as-their-record-implies Vikings.

Houston Texans (vs. Cleveland Browns)

Moneyline: +265Point Spread: +7

This is our top-rated model play for moneyline value on an underdog this week. Beyond that, this matchup is such a unique situation that investing in a little chaos might be smart.

Houston has looked terrible all year. But this is Browns QB Deshaun Watson’s first game back after an 11-game suspension and his first game in nearly two years (other than a preseason game this year in which he went 1-for-5 before being shut down).

The game is also in the city where Watson played his entire career until now. He’s likely going to be Public Enemy No. 1 for a Houston crowd that has put up with this terrible season after Watson’s trade request and his suspension for off-field sexual misconduct allegations.

New York Giants (vs. Washington Commanders)

Moneyline: +114Point Spread: +2.5

The New York Giants are a slight home dog against Washington, and our models show slight value on the Giants as an upset pick.

The Giants have been sliding recently, going 1-3 after a 6-1 start, in large part because of injuries. Notably, OT Evan Neal has missed the last four games. They’ve also failed to rush for 100 yards in all three recent losses, which happened only once in their first seven games. But it appears as though Neal might return this week, which could provide a boost for an offense that is lacking weapons in the passing game.

Washington, meanwhile, has won six of its last seven games, including a 5-1 record with Taylor Heinicke starting at QB. But it’s not like Heinicke’s numbers are a massive improvement over Carson Wentz’s. Instead, they’ve forced an unsustainable 13 turnovers in their past seven games after forcing only one in their first five games. Over that seven-game span, which included several close wins, Washington also recovered 10 of 14 fumbles.

If that luck changes, it could hurt.

2022 Upset Pick History

Below is a full list of the picks we’ve made in this column so far in 2022. We list the moneyline odds at the time we made the pick (“WED ML”), the closing line (“CLOSING ML”), and result.

So far this season, 24 of the picks we’ve made have gotten positive closing-line value (CLV), where the moneyline odds moved in favor of our Wednesday pick by kickoff time. In comparison, 12 picks had negative CLV. That puts us at a 2-to-1 ratio of getting CLV so far.

WEEK	PICK	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	CLOSE VALUE	RESULT
1	Minnesota	Green Bay	105	-130	Yes	W, 23-7
1	NY Giants	Tennessee	210	200	Yes	W, 21-20
1	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	232	266	No	W, 23-20
2	New Orleans	Tampa Bay	125	124	Yes	L, 20-10
2	NY Jets	Cleveland	215	220	No	W, 31-30
2	Atlanta	LA Rams	400	372	Yes	L, 31-27
3	Houston	Chicago	125	145	No	L, 23-20
3	Carolina	New Orleans	135	115	Yes	W, 22-14
3	Indianapolis	Kansas City	228	190	Yes	W, 20-17
4	New York Jets	Pittsburgh	150	140	Yes	W, 24-20
4	Washington	Dallas	155	135	Yes	L, 25-10
4	Seattle	Detroit	180	151	Yes	W, 48-45
5	Washington	Tennessee	115	-110	Yes	L, 21-17
5	Dallas	LA Rams	180	198	No	W, 22-10
5	Houston	Jacksonville	270	260	Yes	W, 13-6
6	New Orleans	Cincinnati	113	148	No	L, 30-26
6	Denver	LA Chargers	203	165	Yes	L, 19-16
6	Carolina	LA Rams	380	345	Yes	L, 24-10
7	Indianapolis	Tennessee	125	120	Yes	L, 19-10
7	San Francisco	Kansas City	131	-103	Yes	L, 44-23
7	Cleveland	Baltimore	230	240	No	L, 23-20
8	NY Giants	Seattle	135	145	No	L, 27-13
8	Arizona	Minnesota	167	170	No	L, 34-26
8	Carolina	Atlanta	182	177	Yes	L, 34-31 (OT)
9	New Orleans	Baltimore	125	112	Yes	L, 27-13
9	Washington	Minnesota	155	145	Yes	L, 20-17
9	Carolina	Cincinnati	275	270	Yes	L, 42-21
10	Arizona	LA Rams	154	163	No	W, 27-17
10	Minnesota	Buffalo	165	215	No	W, 33-30
10	Houston	NY Giants	190	199	No	L, 24-16
11	Chicago	Atlanta	150	125	Yes	L, 27-24
11	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	177	160	Yes	L, 37-30
11	Cleveland	Buffalo	293	300	No	L, 31-23
12	Tennessee	Cincinnati	110	-106	Yes	L, 20-16
12	Pittsburgh	Indianapolis	120	115	Yes	W, 24-17
12	Jacksonville	Baltimore	165	152	Yes	W, 28-27

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Individually, neither the betting markets nor our models give any of these three teams better than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. Given that context, we expect to get most of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week—including losing all three picks in some weeks.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Week 13 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our custom NFL betting trends tool.

If you’d like to see all of our model-based picks for this week (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

And if you’d like to see a curated list of some of our favorite betting picks that this week, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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