Alabama vs Kentucky Prediction, Odds & Prop Bets

Nov 4, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) scrambles up the field against the LSU Tigers during the second half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama Crimson Tide defeated the LSU Tigers 42-28. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY SportsAlabama vs Kentucky is a Week 11 SEC clash set for Saturday, November 11thThe latest Alabama vs Kentucky odds favor the Crimson Tide by 11 pointsRead below for Alabama vs Kentucky prediction, odds and props bets

The #8 Alabama Crimson Tide will look to keep their CFP hopes alive when they face the Kentucky Wildcats in College Football Week 11 on Saturday, November 11th. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM ET at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky.

Oddsmakers are siding with the Crimson Tide for Saturday’s game, instilling Alabama as 11-point road favorites against the Wildcats. The game total is being offered at 47 for a matchup featuring strong defensive talent.

Let’s analyze the Week 11 SEC odds and offer you our Alabama vs Kentucky prediction, plus player props to bet.

Alabama vs Kentucky Odds

Odds as of November 11th, 2023.

In the Alabama vs Kentucky odds, the Crimson Tide are -425 moneyline favorites, giving them a 81% implied win probability. The Wildcats return as +330 underdogs, giving them 23% implied win probability.

The TV channel for Alabama vs Kentucky is ESPN, which is notable with the upcoming launch of the ESPN Sportsbook. Check out the ESPN Bet promo below.

Alabama vs Kentucky Recent Results

Alabama has dominated the rivalry against Kentucky in recent years, winning the last seven matchups dating back to 1997.

The Crimson Tide have blown out the Wildcats in the last three meetings, winning by an average of over 40 points per game. Alabama holds a 38-2-1 all-time advantage in the series.

Against the spread, Alabama is 6-3 this season while Kentucky is 5-4. The Crimson Tide have covered the spread in five of the past six meetings. Alabama has simply overmatched Kentucky on both sides of the ball in recent years.

Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

Alabama enters this Week 11 SEC College Football game with an 8-1 (5-0 SEC) record and #8 ranking in the latest AP Poll. The Crimson Tide have fired off seven straight victories since their early season loss to Texas and are eying a CFP berth.

Alabama’s most recent victory was a huge 42-28 victory over #14 LSU last weekend which puts them in a position to clinch the SEC West on Saturday. QB Jalen Milroe went off on the ground in the game, rushing for 155 yards and four scores.

Jalen Milroe with the TRUCK STICK 😳 pic.twitter.com/b0svEOOGEC

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 5, 2023

Milroe is known for having dual-threat ability, but he’s primarily relied on his arm this season. The junior has thrown for 1,836 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in 2023. Bama’s leading rusher is Jase McClellan with 632 rushing yards and 1 touchdown

The Alabama defense is once again elite under Nick Saban, allowing just 17.8 points per game (18th nationally). Linebacker Caleb Downs leads the team with 76 tackles and 2 interceptions. This suffocating Tide defense is a primary reason Bama has gone 6-3 against the spread.

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Wildcats Betting Analysis

Kentucky enters this CFB clash with a 6-3 record overall and a 3-3 mark in SEC play. The Wildcats had an impressive 5-0 start to the season but have since gone 1-3 over their last 4 games. Their lone win in that span came against Mississippi State last week.

The Wildcats have some momentum entering this one after defeating the Bulldogs by a 24-3 score in Week 10. Of course, Mississippi State is one of the weaker SEC programs this season, but holding any team to just 218 yards of total offense is an impressive feat.

Highlights from tonight's win at Mississippi State. Go Cats. pic.twitter.com/6qvYe1VdpS

— Kentucky Football (@UKFootball) November 5, 2023

The defense is definitely the strength of Kentucky’s team, allowing 22.3 points per game (36th nationally). Linebacker D’Eryk Jackson leads the team with 58 tackles. The Wildcats are pretty vulnerable through the air, but their rushing defense is allowing just 110.8 yards per game.

Kentucky’s offense is averaging 30.0 points per game, led by QB Devin Leary’s 1,905 passing yards and 18 TDs. We don’t expect Leary to be Kentucky’s major impact player in this game, however, as RB Ray Davis (903 yds) is a monster on the ground and will be relied upon to try and slow the game tempo down.

Alabama vs Kentucky Prediction

Alabama is hitting its stride and still has playoff aspirations, while Kentucky has struggled in SEC play. The Crimson Tide have too much offensive firepower led by Jalen Milroe and should be able to win this game by two scores on the road.

A key stat for this game is Kentucky’s inability to score in the second half of games. The Wildcats are only averaging 9.5 points in the second half, which becomes a major issue facing a stifling Bama defense that has held conference opponents to a total of 13 points in the second half this year.

UK may be able to rely on Davis and their ground game to keep the game somewhat close in the first half, but this elite Bama rush defense (120 YPG) will hold strong and Milroe will do his thing in the second half to help Bama pull away.

In terms of player props, many bettors will be looking to hammer Milroe’s rushing props following his performance vs LSU. This Kentucky defense is much more vulnerable through the air, however, and we project Milroe has a big day with his arm, going over his passing yardage total at DraftKings.

Picks:

Alabama -11 (-110)Jalen Milroe Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-110)

 

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