Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Predictions, Odds & Starting Pitchers

Sep 30, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle (6) hits a rbi double scoring shortstop Jorge Mateo (3) in the seventh inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY SportsThe Boston Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles in their 2024 home opener on TuesdayThe Red Sox send young Brayan Bello to the mound opposite Baltimore ace Corbin BurnesSee the Red Sox vs Orioles odds, predictions, and picks for April 9

The last team to host its 2024 home opener, the Boston Red Sox (7-3, 0-0 home, 5-5 O/U) welcome the Baltimore Orioles (5-4, 1-2 away, 4-4-1 O/U) to Fenway Park on Tuesday, April 9, for a 2:10 pm matinee.

Boston has started the season on a 7-3 heater, but finds itself a modest underdog to Baltimore and ace Corbin Burnes on Tuesday afternoon.

Orioles vs Red Sox Odds

The Red Sox are +115 underdogs to win their home opener while the O’s are -135 to improve to 3-0 in Burnes’ starts this season. The over/under is sitting at just 7.5 with the over favored at -125.

Both teams have .500 over/under records this season: Boston is 5-5 O/U while Baltimore is 4-4-1.

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Odds as of April 9 at ESPN Bet. Claim the ESPN Bet promo code to bet on Tuesday’s Orioles/Red Sox game.

Red Sox Start Red-Hot

Boston started the season taking two of three from the Mariners in Seattle before sweeping the lowly A’s in Oakland. The Red Sox won their third series in as many tries over the weekend, taking two of three from the LA Angels before an off day on Monday.

Boston’s offense had its biggest output of the season in the rubber-match against the Halos, pounding out a dozen runs in a 12-2 rout.

Newcomer Tyler O’Neill has been electric with a .357 average and a 1.406 OPS in his first nine games in a Boston uniform. O’Neill is tied for the MLB lead with five home runs, while catcher Reese McGuire has a team-high eight RBI.

Orioles on First Losing Streak of Season

Baltimore won its first two series of the season, taken two of three from the Angels and Royals, both at home. But after taking the first of a three-game set against the Pirates in Pittsburgh, the Bucs answered back, handing the Orioles a pair of one-run setbacks on Sunday (3-2) and Monday (5-4).

Baltimore’s hitters have had a fairly cold start to the year, as a whole. The O’s sit just 19th in wRC+ and have just a .222 team batting average. But the pitching has been excellent. Baltimore has surrendered just 30 runs through nine games (3.33 runs per game).

Corbin Burnes vs Brayan Bello

BurnesVSBello

After a brilliant Opening-Day start against the Angels (one run on one hit over 6.0 innings with 11 Ks), Burnes didn’t have his “A-stuff” in his second start against the Royals, giving up two runs on nine hits over 5.2 innings with just three strikeouts.

But Baltimore still managed a 4-3 win thanks to a two-run single from James McCann in the bottom of the ninth.

There is minimal history between Burnes and the Boston lineup. Longtime Cardinal O’Neill is the only Boston hitter who’s faced Burnes more than twice, and he’s a scant 1-for-11 against the 2021 Cy Young-winner with seven strikeouts. Altogether, the Red Sox hitters are slashing .143/.217/.143 in 21 total at-bats.

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Bello has also made two starts this season, and neither was great. He gave up two runs on five hits over five innings in a 6-4 win over the Mariners on Opening Day; he also lasted five innings in his second start, surrendering four runs on fives hits and a walk against the Athletics.

The good news for Boston is that the 24-year-old has been much better at home than on the road in his short year-plus career. Last season, Bello had a 4.66 ERA on the road but lowered that to 3.86 at Fenway.

Bello made one start against the O’s last year, giving up three runs on seven hits over 5.0 innings in a 7-3 Boston victory in early September 2023.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Burnes didn’t look like his usual self last time out, but that start is likely going to look like an anomaly at the end of the season. His average fastball velocity still touched 97 mph and he actually got more swinging strikes against the Royals (13) than he did when he racked up 11 strikeouts against the Angels on Opening Day (12).

I have a lot more confidence in Burnes shutting down the Red Sox than Bello surviving unscathed against a Baltimore lineup that hit him fairly hard last year in this same stadium.

BAL vs BOS pick: Orioles first 5 innings moneyline (-140)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 MLB betting record: 7-1 (+5.34 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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