Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder Odds, Picks, Predictions & Player Props for Game 1

Mar 14, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving (11) moves the ball around Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort (5) during the first half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY SportsThe #5 Dallas Mavericks start their best-of-seven series with the #1 OKC Thunder tonight in Oklahoma CityOKC took three of four from Dallas in the regular seasonSee the Mavericks vs Thunder Game 1 odds, predictions, and player props on Tuesday, May 7

After a back-and-forth six-game series with the LA Clippers in the first round, the #5 Dallas Mavericks (54-34, 27-17 away, 51-37 ATS) will face the #1 Oklahoma City Thunder (61-25, 35-8 home, 49-36-1 ATS) in the second round of the NBA playoff bracket, starting with Game 1 on Tuesday night at Paycom Center in OKC at 7:40 pm CT/8:40 pm ET.

The Thunder, who swept the Pelicans in round one and have been off since April 29 as a result, head into Game 1 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder Odds

The Thunder are -160 on the moneyline in Tuesday’s NBA odds with the Mavericks at +135 to take Game 1 on the road. The game total is sitting at 218.5.

The Mavericks’ series with the Clippers averaged 207.3 PPG; the first three games stayed under but the final three all went over their totals.

The Thunder’s series with the Pelicans was  much lower scoring, averaging just 194.5 points per game. Three of the four stayed under and OKC didn’t give up more than 92 points in any of the four games.

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The odds to win the series are nearly even ahead of Game 1. OKC is a slight -120 favorite with the Mavericks at even money to reach the Western Conference final. OKC last reached the conference finals in 2016. Doncic and the Mavs lost the 2022 Western Conference finals to the Warriors.

Thunder Dominate in First Round

OKC got off to a slow start in Game 1 against the Pelicans, but emerged with a narrow 94-92 win and then won the final three games by an average of 17 PPG, covering the spread in all three. OKC ended round one with a massive +16.2 Net Rating, second only to the Celtics (+17.0) in the postseason to date.

Shai-Gilgeous Alexander led the team with 27.3 PPG while Jalen Williams added 21.1 PPG. Chet Holmgren was a monster defensively, leading the team with 8.8 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game against New Orleans.

The Mavericks, meanwhile, continued their up-and-down play against the Clippers. Dallas was crushed 109-97 in Game 1, which they trailed by an absurd score of 66-30 at halftime, before winning four of the final five games in the series against an LA team missing Kawhi Leonard.

Despite a couple sub-optimal performances against the shorthanded Clippers, the Mavs finished round one with a +6.4 Net Rating. Luka Doncic averaged a team-high 29.8 PPG but shot just 40.5% from the floor. Kyrie Irving averaged 26.5 PPG on a much more efficient 51.4% from the field.

Dallas vs OKC Injury Reports

Dallas has considerably more injury concerns heading into Game 1. Doncic landed on the injury report with a knee issue, though he is listed as “probable”. The Mavericks will be without Maxi Kleber (shoulder), who averaged 5.7 PPG on 51.4% from three against the Clippers.

The Thunder injury report lists just one player, G-Leaguer Olivier Sarr (Achilles), who averaged 2.3 PPG in 15 games with OKC this season.

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DAL vs OKC Player Props for Game 1

DAL vs OKC Game 1 NBA player props from DraftKings on May 7.  

Despite a relatively quiet first round in which he averaged 29.8 PPG, Doncic has a point total of 32.5 for Game 1 against OKC’s elite defense. Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder at 28.5. SGA put up 27.3 PPG in the first round against the Pelicans, shooting 47.6% from the field.

Doncic also has the highest rebound total at 9.5, followed closely by OKC center Holmgren at 8.5.

Mavericks vs Thunder Game 1 Predictions

This spread isn’t showing enough respect to the Thunder. Luka might be the best player on the floor, and Kyrie the most dynamic, but the Thunder are miles deeper than the top-heavy Mavs and have been phenomenal on their home court all season. Not only are the Thunder 35-8 straight-up at Paycom Center, they’re also 28-15 against the spread.

DAL vs OKC Game 1 picks:

Thunder -3.5 (-110)Holmgren over 8.5 rebounds (-120)

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