North Carolina vs Tennessee Odds, Predictions & Picks for College World Series

Jun 14, 2024; Omaha, NE, USA; Tennessee Volunteers left fielder Dylan Dreiling (8) singles in the winning run against the Florida State Seminoles during the ninth inning at Charles Schwab Filed Omaha. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY SportsBoth 1-0 in the double-elimination portion of the College World Series, North Carolina faces Tennessee on Sunday nightBoth teams are coming off thrilling one-run, walk-off victories on FridaySee the North Carolina vs Tennessee odds, predictions, and picks for the 2024 College World Series on June 16

The 2024 College World Series continues on Sunday with a battle between two 1-0 teams in the double-elimination portion of the tournament. North Carolina (48-14), which edged Virginia 3-2 in walk-off fashion on Friday, will face outright-favorite Tennessee (56-12), which scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth to walk-off Florida State 12-11.

First pitch for UNC vs Tennessee is scheduled for 7:00 pm ET at Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, NB. The winner of Sunday’s game will be one win away from a berth in the CWS best-of-three championship series, while the loser will be one loss away from going home.

Tennessee, which is both the top team in the polls and the top seed in the CWS, is a sizable favorite to improve to 2-0 on Sunday night.

North Carolina vs Tennessee Odds

The UNC vs Tennessee odds for Sunday list the Volunteers as -190 neutral-field favorites with the Tar Heels +145 underdogs. The over/under is currently sitting at 10.5 with the over slightly favored at -120.

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Odds as of June 16. Check out Fanatics sports betting for a new-user bonus. 

Sunday’s game will be the first meeting between Tennessee and UNC this year. The schools haven’t played each other since June 2019, when the Tar Heels won 5-2 in the Chapel Hill Super Regional.

North Carolina enters Sunday on a four-game win streak. Since dropping the second game of the Chapel Hill Regional final to LSU, the Tar Heels have reeled off four straight wins against LSU, West Virginia (twice), and UVA two days.

Tennessee’s 10-8 loss to Evansville in game two of the Knoxville Super Regional was its only setback in the last 11 games. The Vols pounded the Aces 12-1 in the decisive game three before their heart-pounding walk-off win over the Noles on Friday.

Tennessee opened the eight-team tournament as +290 favorites to win the 2024 College World Series, with UNC fourth at +650. Neither team has won the CWS since its inception in 1947. The Vols lost in the final in 1951, while UNC lost back-to-back finals in 2006 and 2007, falling to Oregon State both times.

The starting pitching matchup sees both teams rolling out their number two starters, which means Shea Sprague gets the nod for UNC opposite Drew Beam for the Volunteers.

Shea Sprague vs Drew Beam

SpragueVSBeam

Sprague has slightly better numbers overall this season, with a 4.00 ERA (vs 4.44) and 1.224 WHIP (vs 1.275(, plus a considerably higher strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.32 vs 3.7). But recent history favors Beam. He was also a little more effective in their respective Super Regional performances. Sprague allowed four runs on seven hits over 5.0 innings in an 8-6 win over West Virginia, striking out six in the process without walking a single batter.

Beam, on the other hand, allowed five earned runs over just 4.2 innings on five hits and a walk. Tennessee staked Beam to an early 4-0 lead, but the Vols trailed 6-5 by the end of the fifth.

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North Carolina vs Tennessee Prediction

Tennessee has an absolute juggernaut of an offense, but UNC is not to be overlooked, and I believe they’re being undervalued. The best moneyline price available on the Tar Heels is +150 at Caesars Sportsbook, which amounts to just a 40% implied win probability.

North Carolina doesn’t have quite the same pop at the plate (113 home runs to 154 for Tennessee) but they have a similar OBP (.408 vs .423) and an excellent bullpen. Head coach Scott Forbes only had to use two relievers in Friday’s win over UVA, and with yesterday’s off-day, they should be well-rested.

I am very tempted to bet UNC to win straight-up, but I’m going to stick with North Carolina’s runline (+1.5) and trust that Tennessee’s pitchers will continue allowing a lot of traffic on the basepaths.

UNC vs Tennessee picks: North Carolina +1.5 (-120)