Knicks vs Pacers Game 4 Prediction, Odds, Injuries & Player Props to Bet

May 10, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) catches the ball during game three of the second round for the 2024 NBA playoffs against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY SportsWe’ve made our Knicks vs Pacers Game 4 prediction for Sunday afternoonThe NBA Playoff odds favor Indiana to even the series 2-2 apieceRead below for Knicks vs Pacers Game 4 prediction, odds, injuries and player props

The New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers play Game 4 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal series on Sunday, May 12, 2024, at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The game is scheduled to tip off at 3:30 PM ET and will be broadcast on ABC.

The Pacers are currently 5.5-point favorites to win the game, according to the latest betting odds. Player props favor strong performances from Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo.

Here is our prediction for Sunday’s Knicks vs. Pacers Game 4 along with some player props to watch for.

Knicks vs Pacers Prediction

While we don’t argue that Indiana should be favored against a banged-up Knicks squad, our prediction sees some value in backing Tom Thibodeau’s team against the number.

Series Analysis

After the Knicks took a 2-0 series lead, the Pacers responded with a thrilling 111-106 victory in Game 3, thanks to a clutch performance by Andrew Nembhard. The second-year guard hit a deep 3-pointer with 16.4 seconds remaining to break a 106-106 tie and secure the win for Indiana.

Both teams have been dealing with injuries to their star players. Knicks guard Jalen Brunson has been playing through a right foot injury, while Pacers All-Star Tyrese Haliburton rolled his ankle in Game 3 but managed to stay in the game.

Jalen Brunson says his foot injury did not impact him tonight:

"If I'm out there, I'm playing. There's no excuse whether I'm hurting or not. If I'm hurting, I'll come out." pic.twitter.com/y2lAH98RY8

— Knicks Videos (@sny_knicks) May 11, 2024

Despite the injuries, both players have been performing at a high level, with Haliburton scoring 35 points in Game 3 and Brunson averaging 30.3 points per game in the series.

The Pacers have been tough to beat at home, winning their last nine games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse dating back to the regular season. They will look to even the series at two games apiece and turn it into a best-of-three.

My Game 4 Best Bet

While we think Indiana is the play on the moneyline, we like the Knicks to cover +5.5. The Knicks have managed to take a 2-1 series lead thanks to their impressive three-point shooting. New York is hitting an NBA-best 40.2% from beyond the arc this postseason, including over 47.5% in every game of this series.

While the Pacers have home-court advantage, the Knicks have proven they can win on the road in this series, taking Game 1 in Indiana. New York’s ability to consistently knock down threes should keep them within striking distance, even if the Pacers’ offense finds its rhythm.

New York has covered in all three games of the series so far and only lost by five points in Game 3 with Brunson having an off night. Furthermore, the Knicks are 11-4 (73%) against the spread in their last 15 games coming off a loss.

New York has been the better defensive team throughout the regular season, ranking second in points allowed per game (108.2) and sixth in defensive rebounding percentage. As long as they can limit the Pacers’ second-chance opportunities and keep Indiana off the free-throw line, they should keep it close and cover.

NYN vs IND Pick:

Knicks +5.5 (-110)

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Knicks vs Pacers Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
New York Knicks	+5.5 (-110)	+185	Over 218.5 (-110)
Indiana Pacers	-5.5 (-110)	-225	Under 218.5 (-110)

According to the latest betting odds, the Pacers are 5.5-point favorites to win Game 4. This means that the Pacers are expected to win the game by at least six points. The Knicks, on the other hand, are considered the underdogs in this matchup.

Based on the current odds, the implied probability of the Pacers winning the game is approximately 68.8%, while the Knicks’ implied probability is 31.2%.

The odds favor the Pacers due to their strong home record and the momentum they gained after winning Game 3. The Knicks, however, have proven to be resilient teams throughout the playoffs and shouldn’t be counted out.

 

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Odds as of May 11, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Get up to $1500 back by unlocking the BetMGM promo code for this game.

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NY-IND Player Props

The NBA player props for New York vs Indiana show Jalen Brunson with the point total over/under at 32.5 despite his foot injury. Meanwhile, Tyrese Haliburton’s rebound prop of 8.5 is the highest on the slate.

Player	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Three-Pointers Made
Aaron Nesmith	10.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105)	4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)	OFF	1.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114)
Alec Burks	8.5 (Ov +100 | Un -120)	2.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108)	OFF	1.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142)
Andrew Nembhard	9.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118)	2.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)	4.5 (Ov +130 | Un -155)	1.5 (Ov +190 | Un -230)
Donte DiVincenzo	23.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125)	4.5 (Ov +100 | Un -120)	2.5 (Ov -130 | Un +110)	4.5 (Ov +114 | Un -135)
Isaiah Hartenstein	10.5 (Ov +110 | Un -130)	9.5 (Ov -122 | Un +102)	4.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125)	OFF
Jalen Brunson	32.5 (Ov +100 | Un -120)	3.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)	6.5 (Ov +114 | Un -135)	2.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125)
Josh Hart	15.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125)	13.5 (Ov +110 | Un -130)	5.5 (Ov +110 | Un -130)	0.5 (Ov -175 | Un +145)
Miles McBride	8.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105)	OFF	OFF	1.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120)
Myles Turner	17.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)	7.5 (Ov -130 | Un +110)	OFF	1.5 (Ov -170 | Un +142)
Obi Toppin	8.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)	3.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120)	OFF	1.5 (Ov +164 | Un -198)
Pascal Siakam	21.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)	7.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120)	3.5 (Ov +100 | Un -120)	0.5 (Ov -205 | Un +170)
Precious Achiuwa	6.5 (Ov +105 | Un -125)	6.5 (Ov +130 | Un -155)	OFF	0.5 (Ov +370 | Un -485)
T.J. McConnell	10.5 (Ov +102 | Un -122)	2.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120)	4.5 (Ov +130 | Un -155)	0.5 (Ov +190 | Un -230)
Tyrese Haliburton	21.5 (Ov -122 | Un +102)	4.5 (Ov +120 | Un -142)	8.5 (Ov -142 | Un +120)	3.5 (Ov -120 | Un +100)

Player prop odds as of May. 11, at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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One player prop I like for Sunday is Donte DiVincenzo under 4.5 three-pointers made. While DiVincenzo has been shooting the ball well from beyond the arc, this prop seems a bit high considering he fell short of this total in each of his first five playoff games.

DiVincenzo’s postseason shooting percentage from long range over the last four games is an impressive 56.1%, but it’s important to put this into perspective. During the regular season, he shot a still-respectable 40.1% from deep, but averaged 3.5 made threes per game.

DiVincenzo required 43-plus minutes on the court to reach this mark in each of the last four games, which may have taken a toll on his stamina. In Game 3, he appeared to run out of steam in the final 11 minutes, going scoreless and missing all four of his attempts from the floor, including both 3-point tries.

With the general public likely to be hammering the “over” in this spot, we project some regression to the mean for Donte against a Knicks defensive unit that ranks third in three-point defense (30.2).

NYK vs IND Prop Bet:

DiVincenzo Under 4.5 Three-Pointers Made (-135)

Knicks vs Pacers Injury Report

The Knicks have been hit hard by injuries in this series. Julius Randle (right shoulder), Bojan Bogdanovic (left foot), and Mitchell Robinson (left ankle) are all out for the remainder of the postseason. OG Anunoby, who missed Game 3 with a hamstring strain, is also unlikely to play in Game 4.

For the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton is questionable with a lower back and right ankle injury, while Aaron Nesmith is questionable with a sore right shoulder. Bennedict Mathurin remains out with a right shoulder labral tear.

The injuries to key players on both teams have had a significant impact on the series, forcing role players to step up and take on larger responsibilities.

 

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