Week 11 College Football Picks Against the Spread

Oct 14, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Miami Hurricanes running back Henry Parrish Jr. (21) carries the football against the North Carolina Tar Heels in the first half at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nell Redmond-USA TODAY SportsWeek 11 of college football features an exciting slate on Saturday, November 11thMiami battles Florida State, while Missouri clashes with TennesseeRead below for expert Week 11 college football picks against the spread

The Week 11 college football slate is loaded with betting value, and we’ve identified three of our top Week 11 CFB ats picks to help you make some money.

Among our Week 11 college football picks against the spread is a play on the Miami Hurricanes as they aim to play spoiler to Florida State. We’ve also got a pick in the Tennessee vs Missouri clash in favor of the home underdog.

Here are our Week 11 college football picks against the spread.

Miami vs Florida State Odds

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All odds as of November 8th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the best sportsbook betting apps for college football against the spread wagering. 

Pick #1: Miami (+14) vs Florida State

One of our top Week 11 college football picks against the spread comes in the ACC clash between Miami and Florida State. While most bettors will be looking to fade the Hurricanes after their ugly blowout loss to the Seminoles last season, we believe there’s some underdog value on Mario Cristobal’s club.

The early college football public betting splits show that the Hurricanes could be a potential sharp play on the moneyline, as they are receiving 26% of the money with only 2% of bets. There’s also sharp action on the spread of +14.5, which is what we’ll be focusing on here.

The flags are flying as the #Noles are on hurricane watch for Miami this weekend. #FSU pic.twitter.com/SVeQe6JCx3

— Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III) November 7, 2023

FSU could be without top receivers Keon Coleman and Johnnie Wilson in this game, which is significant when you consider the struggles of the team’s run game this season. The Hurricanes are also allowing under 90 rush yards per game, so the Seminoles will likely need to air it out on Saturday.

The underdog is 13-5 ATS in this rivalry, and the Canes will want nothing more than to deliver a crushing blow to their rival’s CFP chances. There’s talk the Hurricanes could bench QB Tyler van Dyke for this game, but we think the Hurricanes’ ground game, led by Henry Parrish Jr, could be key against an average FSU rush defense.

In FSU’s game against Duke, it was evident that the Seminoles’ rushing defense could be exploited by a strong rushing attack. The Blue Devils went off for almost 200 yards on the ground in that game, and the Hurricanes possess four RBs who are all averaging 8 yards per carry. Look for that to be a key factor in Saturday’s game staying within two scores.

Pick: Miami FL +14 (-108) 2023-24 College Football Playoff Odds TrackerRead More

Tennessee vs Missouri Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Tennessee	-1.5 (-110)	-118	Over 58.5 (-110)
Missouri	+1.5 (-110)	-102	Under 58.5 (-110)

Pick #2: Missouri (+1.5) vs Tennessee

We’re shifting to the SEC for our second play in our Week 11 college football picks against the spread. We like targeting the Missouri Tigers as short home underdogs against the Tennessee Vols on Saturday. This is a game we have projected as a virtual pick’em if the two teams were playing on a neutral field.

Mizzou’s home-field advantage is legit playing at Faurot Field, and we expect a big offensive performance from Brady Cook and the Tigers’ passing game facing a susceptible Vols secondary. Missouri averages 9.3 yards per pass, and WR Luther Burden (958 yds) is among the best wide receivers in the nation.

Saturday Brady Cook and LB3 put the SEC on notice

🐯🐯🐯 pic.twitter.com/LbOnqKkXNO

— CFBTalkDaily (@CFBTalkDaily) October 31, 2023

Tennessee is allowing 222 yards per game through the air, which places them a middling eighth in the SEC in that category. They are among the conference’s best teams at pressuring the quarterback, but the Mizzou O-line has done a good job protecting their QB, allowing only 1.78 sacks per game.

The Vols offense is heavily dependent on its ground game, which is a problem facing a Missouri rush defense that is top-5 in the SEC (3.8 Ypc). We’ll see a healthy dose of Joe Milton throwing the ball, and we don’t trust Milton’s arm against this Mizzou defense.

Missouri has racked up 27 sacks this season (3 per game), and Milton’s completion percentage drops below 40% when facing pressure this season. We expect a strong showing from Mizzou’s defensive line and their passing attack to power them to victory at home.

Pick: Missouri +1.5 (-110)

Utah vs Washington Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Utah	+9.5 (-108)	+295	Over 53 (-110)
Washington	-9.5 (-112)	+375	Under 53 (-110)

Pick #3: Washington (-9.5) vs Utah

Concluding our Week 11 college football picks against the spread is a play on the Washington Huskies as against the Utah Utes. With many down on Washington right now following a few underwhelming performances, we’re going to back them against a Utah team that has spiraled without QB Cam Rising.

Many will be looking at Utah’s impressive 55-3 victory over ASU last weekend and pick them for an upset Saturday. That was an outlier, for this struggling Utes offense, however, and it came against a Wildcats team that barely cracks the top-100 in our college football FBS power rankings.

Dominate the game.

Utah 55 – ASU 3 pic.twitter.com/F6yN1KUoid

— Utah Football (@Utah_Football) November 6, 2023

The Utes are averaging only 21.25 points per game and were held to just a few field goals by Oegon in a 35-6 loss two weeks back. This is the same Ducks squad that the Huskies hung 36 on a three-point victory in Week 9.

Washington boasts an electric offense led by Heisman favorite Michael Penix Jr., who has thrown for over 3,000 yards and 26 TDs with just seven picks. Yes, Utah always has a good defense, but the Utes are still allowing 200 yards per game through the air and have been torched by stronger offensive teams like Oregon and Cal.

With UW scoring at least 31 points in every game but one so far and averaging nearly eight yards per play, we don’t envision Utah scoring enough to cover the spread Saturday. As we throw away recency bias and analyze the entire season, we have this projected as a double-digit home victory for UW.

Pick: Washington -9.5 (-112)

 

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