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There are seven NBA contests on Saturday including a couple high profile matinee matchups. While much the basketball world’s focus shifts to college basketball, this is a time where the NBA begins to heat up as the playoffs are coming into focus. Here are some of my favorite bets for this Sunday slate.
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Sunday’s NBA Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks
There will be no lack of star power in this rematch of the 2021 NBA Finals. Giannis and the Bucks got rolling recently with a six-game winning streak, but once they moved onto the road the defense did not travel. In a four-game West Coast road trip they gave up 123.5 PPG. They came back home and shut down a heavily underhanded Philadelphia team, but the defensive effort on the road is more like what we’ve seen from them all season.
Milwaukee has the 17th-ranked defensive rating. Their opponent eFG%, offensive rebounding %, and free throw rate are actually top 10 in the league, but they just don’t force turnovers. If you look at the matchup with Phoenix it’s a strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness. The Suns shoot, rebound, and get to the free throw line. They have had issues with turnovers, but against a defense that isn’t forcing them they can play to their strengths.
Offensively, Milwaukee is always a team you can count on to light up the nets. It’s the whole reason they moved on from Jrue Holiday in the offseason and brought in Damian Lillard. Their 120.4 PPG is good enough for fourth-best in the NBA. Before the All-Star break, this total would have been quite a few points higher. I think both teams play to their offensive strengths and light up the scoreboard in what looks to be a very competitive contest.
Pick: Over 227.5 (-110)
Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons
These two squads squared off on Friday night and scored a total of 203 points. That total was set at 217.5, easily going Under. For the second matchup we’re getting 215.5, but that still isn’t low enough.
Miami hasn’t scored more than 110 points since March 2nd. They haven’t been much of an offensive team all season as seen in their 22nd-ranked offensive rating, but they continue to be a top-10 defensive team and play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Twice already they’ve dictated the pace against this young Detroit team that likes to run up and down the floor. The only matchup between these two teams that went over this number ended up with 40 made free throws.
Detroit’s offense is not well-equipped to take on a defense like Miami’s. On the other side of the court, they don’t force turnovers and will allow Miami to dictate the pace. Unless this game becomes an out-of-character foul fest or both teams get hot beyond the arc, this game should go under easily.
Pick: Under 215.5 (-110)
Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks
The defending champs are looking every bit the part of a team that is primed to repeat. They’ve come on incredibly strong since the All-Star break and have catapulted themselves back into the top seed in the Western Conference. They’ll travel to Dallas to take on a Mavericks team that has been hot and cold all season.
The Mavericks are only 5-6 SU in their last 11 games and taking a deeper look at the quality of opponents, the wins don’t look all that impressive. Defensively, they just don’t cut the mustard. A 22nd-ranked defensive rating has led them to give up big offensive nights against some of the best teams in the league. Denver is a great shooting team but they’ll also get a lot of second-chance points as they’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams and Dallas is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams.
Offensively, Dallas should have some success but Denver’s defense has locked in recently giving up just 107.7 PPG in this recent 11-1 SU run where the only loss was in overtime. Denver is locked in and playing their best basketball of the season. None of their recent 11 wins have been by fewer than six points. If Dallas can’t get stops then I don’t know how they keep this one close enough to cover.
Pick: Nuggets -3 (-110)
