Premier League Matchday 23 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

The English Premier League is back in action after an exciting midweek matchday. There wasn’t much movement at the top of the table aside from Tottenham wedging its way back into the top four. They knocked out Aston Villa, who suffered their first home defeat in a 3-1 affair with Newcastle.

We have a few exciting matches on the docket this weekend. Let’s dive into where I’m laying my money on the pitch for matchday 23!

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Premier League Matchday 23 Preview & Best Bets (2024)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Sheffield United (+400) @ Aston Villa (-160), DRAW (+330) | O/U 2.5 (-155/+125)

Aston Villa hits the road on Saturday, where they’ll square off against last-place Sheffield United. The Blades are currently a -1600 favorite to be relegated at the end of the season, while the Villans are +160 to finish inside the top four. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET from Bramall Lane in Sheffield, England. 

I’m fully expecting Aston Villa to bounce back after that ugly 3-1 home loss on Tuesday afternoon. Conceding three goals was an outlier performance from Unai Emery’s side, considering they had previously posted three straight clean sheets across all competitions. This will be a favorable matchup for the Lions’ defense to get back on track, as the Blades have managed just 19 goals in 22 matches this term (0.86 GPG).

Aston Villa should light it up on the offensive side as well. They’ve scored 44 goals this season (2.0 GPG), fifth in the PL. They’ve also scored at least once in 10 of their last 11 Premier League ties. Honestly, one goal may be enough to at least get us a push at -1.0, but I’m expecting a full-on bombardment from the Villans. This Sheffield defense is also the worst in the league, surrendering 54 goals. 

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Bet: Aston Villa -1.0 (+100)

Arsenal (+125) @ Liverpool (+210), DRAW (+265) | O/U 2.5 (-150/+120)

The marquee match of the weekend pits Arsenal against Liverpool on Sunday. The Gunners enter the new matchday in third (46 points), while the Reds still hold down the top spot with 51 points. This heavyweight tilt gets underway at 11:30 a.m. ET from Emirates Stadium in London, England. 

These two sides met at Anfield on Dec. 23, ending in a 1-1 draw. They played again a few weeks later, on Jan. 7, in the FA Cup, where Liverpool posted a 2-0 victory in London. I will bump this total up to 3.0 goals and play the under. We could talk for days about how dynamic these offenses are, but the truth is that the defenses have been equally as effective this campaign. 

The Reds bring in the best defense in the league, where they’ve surrendered just 19 goals (0.86 GA/G). The Gunners are right behind them, conceding only 21 times this season (0.95 GA/G). In terms of expected goals against (xGA), the two clubs rank third (24.6) and first (17.1), respectively. With Mo Salah (thigh) still sidelined, I think Liverpool will opt for a relatively conservative approach. They’ll at least want to secure one point on this trip to the hostile Emirates Stadium. 

Bet: Under 3.0 (-145)

Brentford (+650) @ Manchester City (-260), DRAW (+400) | O/U 2.5 (-175/+135)

The champs are going for the four-peat this season, but they have a little bit of ground to make up as they trail Liverpool by five points. They do have a game in hand, where they’ll host Brentford on Feb. 20 to make up for a rescheduled Matchday 18 affair. As for Brentford, they’ve gone 1-0-4 in their last five matches, which has dropped them to 15th in the table (22 points). Kickoff from Gtech Community Stadium in Brentford, England, is scheduled for Monday at 3:00 p.m. ET. 

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The Bees have been an "over-machine" recently, seeing 15 combined goals over their last three games. Each of those contests has ended with a 3-2 final score. Thomas Frank finally has Ivan Toney back in his lineup after his gambling suspension, and the forward already has two goals in two matches. Brentford now ranks ninth in expected goals (xG) this season, sitting at 35.4. In the same category, City is fourth at 41.5. 

I think we’re in for quite a bit of scoring on Monday afternoon. With both Erling Haaland (14 goals) and Toney back in the mix, we have a pair of premier goalscorers taking the pitch. Manchester City has been playing to the over recently, seeing at least four goals in four of their last five Premier League matches. This offense is heating up, and we should see another sharp performance from this juggernaut City lineup. Give me the over! 

Bet: Over 3.0 (-115)

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Trenton Pruitt