Betting
Olympic Sports
News, Blog and Guides
We have a dozen games on Monday’s MLB slate. That includes a doubleheader between the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles. With no starter yet named for Baltimore, I am going to steer clear of that contest.
Still, we have plenty of candidates for our NRFI (No Run First Inning) bets.
Here are three of my favorite NRFI bets for Monday, July 29.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet €“ Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet €“ Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
- Top Bettor Picks for MLB
- MLB PrizePicks Cheat Sheet
Join our new MLB Betting Group to share bets and compete in leaderboards >>
Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified)
Minnesota Twins (+105) at New York Mets (-125) | O/U 8.5 (-108/-112)
Starting Pitchers: Simeon Woods Richardson vs. Jose Quintana
The Minnesota Twins and New York Mets are two of seven teams who have scored at least 500 runs this season. That may give some bettors pause when considering this for an NRFI bet. But I think there are reasons to like this play.
Let’s start with each team’s respective offense. Minnesota has scored a run in just two of their last 13 games overall and in one of their last seven games in which a left-handed pitcher has opposed them. That includes a 40 wRC+ in July versus left-handers in the first inning.
Minnesota is also missing a few key components of its lineup. Carlos Correa is still on the injured list (IL) and Jose Miranda is likely out after leaving Sunday’s game after being hit in the head with a pitch.
The Mets are the only team in the Majors who enters Monday’s action without a first-inning run over their last 10 ball games. New York has gone 14 consecutive contests without scoring in the first inning. This month, they have a -24 wRC+ (yes, you read that correctly) in the first inning versus right-handed pitchers. In that split, Mets hitters are 4-for-50 with 24 strikeouts.
On the pitching side, Jose Quintana is 13-7 to the NRFI, with almost all of the losses coming via home runs. Quintana has served up six first-inning homers this season. The good news is that he has held the duo of Byron Buxton and Carlos Santana to a combined 12-for-66 (.182) lifetime mark. If he can work his way around Royce Lewis, I expect Quintana to toss a scoreless first inning on Monday.
Simeon Woods Richardson has been one of the league’s best NRFI pitchers. He is 16-1 to the NRFI this year, including a perfect 9-0 road mark. Given his first-inning form and how bad Mets hitters have been early in games, I like his chances to match Quintana with a first-inning zero.
I have seen this listed at -115 at DraftKings, ESPN Bet and Fanatics Sportsbook. I just wanted to mention that in case the DraftKings price rises.
Bet: MLB NRFI (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates (-155) at Houston Astros (+130) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes vs. Jake Bloss
Monday is Paul Skenes Day. I am adding the young fireballer to my NRFI ticket. The other side of this NRFI equation certainly feels more difficult to rely on. So let’s dig into that side first.
Jake Bloss is on the mound for the Houston Astros on Monday. Bloss is just 1-2 to the NRFI and has allowed five home runs in just 11.2 innings through three starts. However, a matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates could be exactly what the doctor ordered.
Pittsburgh has just one home run in the first inning this month against a right-handed pitcher in 61 at-bats. They are also dealing with some injuries that have thinned out their lineup a bit.
The team placed second baseman Nick Gonzales on IL on Sunday with a groin injury. First baseman Rowdy Tellez has missed the last two games due to back spasms. These absences could be enough to get Bloss over that three-out finish line on Monday.
As for Skenes, he is 9-3 to the NRFI this season. That includes three straight hits in July. Two of his three NRFI losses this year came via a leadoff homer, so that could be something to watch for. We know Jose Altuve does not need a written invitation to be aggressive early. Still, I give the advantage to Skenes.
Houston has only generated a .033 ISO (two doubles and no other extra-base hits in 60 at-bats) in the first inning when facing a right-handed pitcher in July. Skenes also has an incredible 19:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the first inning this year.
Despite the potent hitters atop the Astros lineup, I like Skenes to dial up another first-inning zero on Monday night.
I know Bet365 is not the most accessible sportsbook, but I would play this up to -140 elsewhere. It is currently -135 at ESPN Bet.
Bet: MLB NRFI (-130 via Bet365)
Atlanta Braves (+108) at Milwaukee Brewers (-126) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)
Starting Pitchers: Grant Holmes vs. Colin Rea
Our final NRFI bet is for the game between the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee will send Colin Rea to the mound, while Grant Holmes will be making his first Major League start for Atlanta.
Both offenses have sputtered recently in the first inning, especially against right-handed pitchers.
Atlanta is hitting just .155 in July when facing a righty in the first inning. They also have a 32.1% strikeout rate in this split. It all adds up to a weak 47 wRC+.
Rea has settled down from an NRFI perspective in recent weeks. He has logged five consecutive scoreless first innings. He also has very good career numbers against Atlanta hitters.
Braves batters are just 3-for-18 with 10 combined strikeouts lifetime against Rea. Two of those three hits were home runs, which feels like a common theme with Monday’s pitchers. But Rea has only allowed one long ball this month, which has been a huge factor in his recent NRFI success. I expect the veteran to hold the Braves without a run in the first inning on Monday.
The Milwaukee Brewers have not been much better than the Braves when facing a right-hander during July. They have a 27.5% strikeout rate to go along with a .191 batting average. Milwaukee has scored just 15 total runs across five games since Christian Yelich was injured early last week.
Holmes has thrown a scoreless first inning of work in all six games in which he has entered at the start of an inning this year. That may not be quite the same as starting a game from scratch. However, it does give us added confidence he can hold up his end of the NRFI bargain on Monday.
Bet: MLB NRFI (-113 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:
- Early NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
- 2024 NFL Futures Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Early 2025 NBA Championship Odds
- Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks
