MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Monday (7/22)

The 2024 MLB season is approaching the trade deadline and 23 teams are averaging at least one home run per game. It’s a statistic that has provided sports bettors with opportunities to cash an MLB home run prop bet day after day. Here’s a peek at three sluggers worth backing to smash a ball over the fence on Monday, July 22.

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Monday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Alec Burleson (+650)

Alec Burleson has been frustrating right-handed pitchers daily this year. The St. Louis outfielder currently boasts a .573 slugging percentage and a tally of 15 home runs against righties. Both of those marks rank among the top 10 players in baseball and ahead of several notable pros. All-Stars like Los Angeles’ Freddie Freeman and Texas’ Corey Seager have not put up those kind of numbers.

Bettors should feel comfortable relying on Burleson in another matchup versus a right-hander on Monday. Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller has allowed three homers across his last two home starts and was tagged for two dingers in his start against the Cardinals on June 13. Keep in mind Burleson smoked a four-seam fastball 435 feet into the crowd on Sunday afternoon. That’s the pitch Keller relies on most at 29.7%, per Baseball Savant.

Randy Arozarena (+340)

The Rays will aim to secure a pivotal series win on Monday after taking two of the first three contests over the Yankees this past weekend. Manager Kevin Cash’s squad will take on starter Carlos Rodon, who has struggled to limit the long ball lately. The New York hurler has given up nine jacks across his last five starts. That includes when Isaac Paredes torched him on a fastball during a 5-3 Tampa Bay win on July 9.

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Let’s shy away from Paredes this time and trust the hot hand instead. Outfielder Randy Arozarena has logged three home runs in his last two games and his OPS against left-handed pitchers now stands well above average at .907. Not only that, but Arozarena is 3-for-7 with a homer in seven career at-bats versus Rodon. Look for his price tag in a potential trade to rise even higher thanks to a moon shot.

Will Smith (+550)

A total of 11 earned runs allowed on 10 hits and six walks in 7.1 innings. That is the stat line San Francisco’s Blake Snell has posted through his first two road starts in 2024. That is not ideal for him considering a showdown with the Dodgers in Los Angeles looms on Monday night. The Dodgers lead the league with an impressive .794 OPS when facing left-handed pitching and check in second with 138 home runs overall.

Catcher Will Smith jumps out here as he is the only L.A. hitter with at least two homers and five walks against Snell in his career. The 29-year-old sees the ball well out of the southpaw’s hand. It’s important to note Smith also touts a .651 slugging percentage over 101 at-bats versus lefties this campaign (fifth-best mark in MLB). A day off on Sunday means Smith will be at full strength battling a division rival.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

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Lawrence Rupp