2023 Alamo Bowl Odds, Picks & Prediction for Arizona vs Oklahoma

Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel (8) celebrates beside Austin Stogner (81) and Cayden Green (70) after running for a touchdown during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023.The #14 Arizona Wildcats are 2.5-point favorites over the #12 Oklahoma Sooners in the Alamo Bowl on Thursday, December 28Arizona is 7-1 ATS over the past eight gamesOklahoma QB1 Dillon Gabriel won’t be playing after transferring to Oregon for next season

The #14 Arizona Wildcats (9-3, 10-2 ATS) were among college football’s hottest teams during the second half of the season, while the #12 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2, 6-4-1 ATS) stumbled and cost themselves a potential place in the college football playoff.

Arizona is 6-0 straight up over the past six games. With some key Sooners personnel, including QB1 Dillon Gabriel opting out of the Alamo Bowl, this combination has oddsmakers leaning toward the Wildcats as the pick for this game.

The Wildcats are set as 2.5-point favorites in the Arizona vs Oklahoma odds. Arizona is 7-1 against the spread over the last eight games.

Taking a deeper look into the Arizona vs Oklahoma odds, we’ll offer you our pick for this NCAA football bowl game.

Arizona vs Oklahoma Odds

In the Arizona vs Oklahoma odds, the Wildcats are -130 moneyline favorites, giving them a 56.52% implied win probability. The total is set at 58.5 points. Even though Arizona is 4-8 on the total this season, the over has hit in the last three Wildcats games.

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These two schools have met twice previously, with each team winning once. But this is the first time Arizona and Oklahoma have squared off on the football field since 1989.

Appearing in their 57th bowl game, the Sooners are 31-24-1 SU overall. Oklahoma won the 2021 Alamo Bowl 37-32 over Oregon. The Sooners are 3-6 SU in the last nine bowl appearances.

Playing in their 22nd bowl game, the Wildcats are 9-11-1 SU. Arizona lost to Oklahoma State 36-10 in the 2010 Alamo Bowl. The Wildcats are 5-4 SU in the past nine bowl games.

Kickoff for this game at the Alamodome on Thursday, December 28 is set for 9:15 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by ESPN.

Wildcats vs Sooners Betting Trends

Assessing the college football public betting splits, the people don’t seem as sold on Arizona as the oddsmakers. It’s underdog Oklahoma drawing 69% of handle and 58% of bets in the spread splits. This even though the Wildcats at 10-2 are the #3 ATS team in the nation.

Moneyline players are solidly in line with Arizona. They’re giving Arizona the backing of 96% of handle and 80% of bets in the splits. The Wildcats are 8-0 SU the last eight times they’ve kicked off as the betting favorite.

The betting public is leaning slightly to the under on the total. It’s pulling 53% of handle and 55% of bets. The under has been the winning play in 11 of Arizona’s last 16 games. The over is 5-3 in Oklahoma’s last eight games.

Fifita A Fit For Wildcats

It’s curious to wonder how different a path Arizona’s season might have traveled if head coach Jeff Fisch didn’t make the Week 2 decision to change to redshirt freshman Noah Fifita as his QB1. He’s passed for 2,515 yards, including a 527-yard performance against arch-rival Arizona State.

Arizona's offensive players on what stands out to them about Noah Fifita:

Michael Wiley: "His professionalism and his 'cerebralness'. He's just a professional out there, everything he does is detailed. He's a great listener, great leader. So far, I've just been impressed with…

— AZ Band Cat Sports (@AZBandCatSports) December 27, 2023

Fifita has thrown for 23 touchdowns. His main target among a deep receiving corps is Tetairoa McMillan. He’s caught 80 passes for 1,242 yards and 10 TDs.

Oklahoma is 11th in the nation in pass defense efficiency, so the Sooners will offer Fifita a significant test.

Departures Hampering Sooners

The out door has been getting a workout in the Oklahoma locker room. Several key players are opting out of playing in the Alamo Bowl. Heading that list is QB1 Gabriel. After entering the transfer portal and deciding to go to Oregon, he won’t be suiting up for the Sooners.

Gabriel passed for 3,660 yards this season, ranking him eighth in the nation. He’s also seventh with 30 passing TDs. Replacing him under center is five-star recruit Jackson Arnold. As a freshman, Arnold is 18-of-24 for 202 yards and two TDs.

🎱 pic.twitter.com/94ltSBId0z

— Dillon Gabriel (@_dillongabriel_) December 28, 2023

Adding to the concern for the Oklahoma offense is that two offensive line starters, Andrew Raym and Tyler Guyton, are also opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. A third offensive lineman, Cayden Green, won’t play after transferring to Miami.

Considering that Arizona is 25th in the nation with 31 sacks, and 18th in the country at stopping the run (111.3 yards allowed per game), working with a makeshift offensive line could be a big problem for Oklahoma.

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Arizona vs Oklahoma Prediction

These are two ships passing in the night. Oklahoma is leaving the Big-12 for the SEC. Arizona is joining the Big-12.

Overall, the Sooners are 7-2 SU when playing a bowl game in Texas. Meanwhile, Arizona hasn’t won a bowl game since 2015.

Oklahoma, though, has played just two ranked teams all season, going 1-1. Arizona gave #2 Washington a tussle before falling 31-24.

The personnel losses for the Sooners will be the difference maker in a close game.

Arizona vs Oklahoma Pick: Arizona Wildcats -2.5 (-110)