NC State vs UNC Prediction, Odds & Betting Promos

Jan 10, 2024; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (4) dribbles with the ball during the first half against North Carolina State Wolfpack at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-USA TODAY SportsWe’ve made our NC State vs UNC prediction for Saturday’s anticipated basketball gameThe college basketball odds favor the Tar Heels to defeat their in-state rival WolfpackRead below for NC State vs UNC prediction, odds & betting promos

The North Carolina Tar Heels (22-6, 14-3 ACC) host the NC State Wolfpack (17-11, 9-8 ACC) in an in-state ACC rivalry matchup on Saturday, March 2nd at 4 PM EST. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

According to BetMGM Sportsbook, North Carolina is a 10.5-point favorite with the total set at 153.5. The Tar Heels have been dominant at home this season, going 12-1 straight up and 9-3-1 against the spread. Meanwhile, the struggling Wolfpack have lost four of their last six games overall.

Let’s get into our UNC vs NC State prediction, along with odds and betting promos.

NC State vs UNC Odds

In the NC State vs UNC odds, the Tar Heels are heavy -600 home favorites on the moneyline, giving them an implied win probability of 86%.

These two teams have already played once this season, with the Tar Heels beating the Wolfpack by a 67-54 final score on Jan. 10.

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Odds as of March 2nd, 2024 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Bettors in the Tar Heel state can pre-register with the BetMGM North Carolina promo to receive $200 in bonus bets on launch day! 

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Online sports betting in North Carolina doesn’t officially go live until March 11th, however, pre-registration is now open to residents in the Tar Heel state! NC bettors can sign up at North Carolina sports betting apps to unlock some sweet bonus money for the launch date.

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UNC Betting Analysis

The Tar Heels come into this matchup riding a three-game winning streak after taking down Miami 75-71 on Monday. All-American candidate RJ Davis put the team on his back, erupting for a career-high 42 points while breaking the Dean Smith Center scoring record. It was a vintage performance from the senior guard who leads the ACC at 21.7 points per game.

Davis has caught fire down the stretch, averaging 29.3 points over his last three contests. He’s developed into an elite shot creator and knockdown three-point shooter, hitting 44.4% from deep in ACC play. The Wolfpack rank 268th nationally defending the three, so expect Davis to stay hot on Saturday.

RJ Davis balled out tonight 🔥

His 42 points broke the Dean Dome record set by Tyler Hansbrough 🐏 pic.twitter.com/oHe9L8VM1F

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) February 27, 2024

While Davis went off against Miami, North Carolina’s supporting cast was quiet. Armando Bacot was saddled with foul trouble and finished with just nine points in 22 minutes. The Tar Heels will need more from their double-double machine and ACC Player of the Year candidate versus an NC State frontcourt that held him to nine points in their first meeting.

Wingman Leaky Black is questionable after missing the last two games with an injury. His defensive versatility would be valuable against an NC State team that starts four capable perimeter scorers. Freshman guard Seth Trimble and junior forward Puff Johnson have stepped up nicely in his absence.

We’re so lucky to have a guy that plays defense like Seth Trimble. pic.twitter.com/km38zt9hG0

— Tar Heels of NYC (@TarHeelsofNYC) February 27, 2024

North Carolina remains one of the top offensive and rebounding teams nationally, ranking 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 7th in offensive rebounding rate. Their uptempo attack puts pressure on opponents, especially at home where they average over 81 points per game.

Defensively, the Heels have been solid if unspectacular, ranking 55th in adjusted efficiency. They defend the interior well but can be vulnerable against teams that shoot the three efficiently.

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NC State Betting Analysis

The Wolfpack have struggled in ACC play after a strong non-conference start. They’ve dropped four of six games including an ugly 90-83 loss at Florida State last time out. NC State sits squarely on the bubble with a NET ranking of 80th, likely needing to win out or make a run in the ACC Tournament to hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

Guard DJ Horne continues to pace the Wolfpack offense at 17.5 points per game while shooting 43% from three. Forwards Jarkel Joiner and Casey Morsell can also fill it up, giving NC State a versatile perimeter attack. The Pack average right around 77 points per game but only shot 27% as a team when they hosted UNC in early January.

Low post scorer DJ Burns keys the offense inside at 12 points and seven rebounds a night. His battle down low with Bacot will be a pivotal matchup. Burns was held scoreless in 22 minutes during the team’s previous meeting.

While the offense has firepower, defense remains an issue for NC State. They allow over 72 points per contest and rank 188th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Quick guards have given them problems all year, which spells trouble against a fast UNC backcourt.

In their lone matchup this season, North Carolina dominated on the glass and defensively in a 67-54 road win. The Tar Heels held a decisive 54-30 edge in rebounding. Harrison Ingram pulled down 19 boards himself for UNC. If NC State can’t keep the Heels off the offensive glass and get stops, it’ll be another long night for the Pack in Chapel Hill.

NC State vs UNC Matchup Stats

NC StateVSUNC

0-1	Head-To-Head	1-0
17-11	Record	22-6
76.2 (108th)	Points Per Game	81.5 (26th)
72.1 (188th)	Points Allowed Per Game	70.4 (127th)
61.93 (49th)	Field Goals Attempted Per Game	62.39 (37th)
44.35% (202nd)	Field Goal %	44.76% (173rd)
21.29 (211th)	3-Point Attempts Per Game	22.57 (154th)
34.06 (179th)	3-Point Field Goal %	35.44% (101st)
14.04 (164)	Free Throws Per Game	17.68 (13th)
72.91% (137th)	Free Throw %	74.89% (59th)

NC State vs UNC Prediction

North Carolina’s dominance of NC State has been well-documented, as they’ve taken 37 of the last 43 meetings straight up. Most recently, the Heels controlled the game wire-to-wire in a 13-point win at PNC Arena.

NC State likely needs to win out to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Expect a motivated effort, but their struggles on defense and on the glass make it hard to predict an upset. RJ Davis and Armando Bacot should have their way, especially playing at home where UNC rarely loses.

The betting trends also favor North Carolina. They are 13-3 straight up in their last 16 home games against NC State and have covered in nine of the previous 11 meetings overall.

UNC x NC State: Round 2 ‼️😤🐏 pic.twitter.com/qljL1gjmdD

— The Tar Heel Story (@tarheelstory) March 2, 2024

With Leaky Black potentially out again, there is some concern about UNC’s perimeter defense. However, State’s inability to slow down dynamic guards like Davis is the more pressing matchup issue from a betting perspective.

RJ Davis continuing his hot streak and Bacot bouncing back with a double-double seem like safe bets. The Tar Heels should control the pace and pound the offensive glass en route to a comfortable win and cover as sizable home favorites.

UNC vs NC State Pick:

North Carolina -10.5 (-110)

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